Newsletter: A Monetary Inflation Signal - A Matter of Velocity
It's not just about money supply.
Inflation is looking sticky, and the possibility of an inflation resurgence is becoming more plausible, as I outlined a while ago as the "Aborted Landing Scenario." With that in mind this month's newsletter will discuss the model I use to recognize monetary inflation, as opposed to supply or demand driven inflation.
Those in the Supporter category have access to the series of papers I wrote at First Quadrant on the "The Multiple Personalities of Inflation" which described the three types and gave historical examples. When writing those papers I developed a straightforward identifier of monetary inflation since it is the most dangerous of the three types. I've mentioned these ideas in the past without details. Given all of the speculation about the direction of inflation, I thought it'd be a good time to give Supporters some details so they can either use it or not depending upon their views.