Blog: The Market Sings the Who.

The market thinks recession fears are overdone, again.

Blog: Risk down. Uncertainty high. What could go wrong?

Lower risk numbers do not mean uncertainty has followed.

Blog: Predictability, Chaos and Complexity in Markets

The Nature of Uncertainty Changes over the Market Cycle.

Blog: Why Are US Treasuries No Longer "Safe?"

Maybe bonds are acting like high inflation is already here.

Blog: Tariffs, Reciprocal In Name Only, Make Markets Fragile

Downside risk is larger than upside opportunities.

Flash Report: MUSI shifts to a Fragile State

Blog: Trade Wars-Transitory, or Hubris?

Uncomfortable parallels between the current Trade War and 1914.

Blog: Is the Market in a Correction? Bear Market? Dead Cat Bounce?

Words. Words. Words.

Blog: As Inflation Expectations Untether, Stagflation Looms.

Tariffs are an exogenous shock that can slow growth and increase inflation.