Blog: Beginning of the End, or End of the Beginning?

Stagflation seems likely. The question is whether it's strong or weak.

Blog: Complexity Trips Up Economists, Again.

When is a probability not a probability?

Blog: Are the Markets Underreacting to "the biggest energy shock in history?"

Markets are feeling optimistic, despite a wounded energy economy.

Blog: Unlike Political Regime Change, the Market Shifts Regimes by Itself

The market uncertainty state turns Fragile in the face of war.

Blog: Paul the Octopus, Market Guru.

Sometimes its better to just be lucky.

Blog: Skill vs. Luck in Markets

Don't confuse genius with a bull market.

Blog: The Goalie's Dilemma: Increasing Uncertainty to Reduce Risk

When risk and uncertainty are not synonymous.

Blog: Is This the End of the AI/Crypto/Gold Bubble?

Maybe, but Maybe not.

Blog: Monetary Policy - Ballistic vs. Gradualist Behavior

The Logic of Failure.