Blog: Predictability, Chaos and Complexity in Markets
The Nature of Uncertainty Changes over the Market Cycle.
Edgar E Peters
Blog: Why Are US Treasuries No Longer "Safe?"
Maybe bonds are acting like high inflation is already here.
Blog: Tariffs, Reciprocal In Name Only, Make Markets Fragile
Downside risk is larger than upside opportunities.
Flash Report: MUSI shifts to a Fragile State
Blog: Trade Wars-Transitory, or Hubris?
Uncomfortable parallels between the current Trade War and 1914.
Blog: Is the Market in a Correction? Bear Market? Dead Cat Bounce?
Words. Words. Words.
Blog: As Inflation Expectations Untether, Stagflation Looms.
Tariffs are an exogenous shock that can slow growth and increase inflation.
Blog: Market Signal vs. Noise
Dealing with market noise is harder than it looks.
Blog: Tariffs as Exogenous Shocks
When the unexpected is expected, is it still exogenous?
Blog: The Goalie's Dilemma (2)
Increasing uncertainty can reduce risk.