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Edgar E Peters

Edgar E Peters

http://www.edgarepeters.com

Blog: Fed Policy-Is the "neutral rate" a myth?

The Fed and other central banks have now stated that they are raising rates to remove “accommodation.” Basically, they want to stop stimulating the economy and go to the much sought after neutral rate, which balances growth/employment and inflation. But what is this neutral rate? How will they know

Blog: Bitcoin are Pork Bellies, Not Gold

Bitcoin proponents often refer to cryptocurrencies as “digital gold.” But aside from both having few practical uses, bitcoin and gold have little in common. Yet despite its lack of utility, bitcoin continues to trade. Along with other cryptocurrencies, bitcoin seems to have taken on a life of its own as

Blog: When a Recession is not a "Recession"

In my last post, I noted that the definition of a recession is not as precise as people think. The rule of thumb is two quarters of negative GDP growth. Yet, the decline in 2020 only lasted two months, March and April. So what gives? The two quarter definition is

Blog: What's the yield curve telling us?

There is much discussion about the inverted yield curve and what it means. Many are saying that an inverted yield curve, where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, “always” precedes a recession. This bit of market lore, though, depends on a lot of basic definitions that are not often

Blog: Inflation checklist-Back to the future

I started in the investment business in May 1978, when I transferred to the investment department from the “data processing” department at the insurance company where I worked. Inflation had been rising for some time. I’d already seen the OPEC oil embargo of 1973, though I was a student

Blog: Correction or Bear Market-The quantification of jargon

When I first entered the investment business in 1978, the use of quantitative techniques was the lunatic fringe of investing. Those of us who used these methods wanted to change the world, and we did. Now, even “traditional” managers use what would have been considered quant techniques in the 1970s