Blog: The MOVE index is not what it seems - Part 2
"Flight to quality" is a myth.
Edgar E Peters
Blog: Central Banks and "The Logic of Failure"
Studies of complex decision making may help us understand future monetary policy.
Blog: Is a low VIX "the dog that didn't bark?"
Is absence of evidence a clue?
Blog: Will the Fed pull off a 1994 in 2024?
Soft landing is becoming a possibility much to my surprise.
Blog - Leverage is Increasing: Is that a good thing, or a bad thing?
A couple of weeks ago I mentioned that leverage is rising. Many people think leverage, which is going into debt, is always bad. Others feel the opposite. The fact that most people in the middle class borrow at least 80% of the value of their homes to buy them is
Blog: Will the Fed Care if Inflation is Sticky?
Depends on how you measure inflation.
Blog: Can China Make the Phase Transition to Complexity?
Will Chinese government allow their economy to develop an invisible hand?
Blog: Is the AI Bubble here? Looking at the Bubble Checklist
Bubble talk is premature. But we're getting there.
Newsletter: Crossing the Threshold - Classifying the Market State
Turning time series into classifiers using ROC analysis.