Blog: The Method and Madness Model of irrational behavior
Rational and irrational behavior defined by comparing the types of uncertainty we face with the decision making methods we use.
Edgar E Peters
Blog: Sandpile Monetary Policy and Inflation
Do the dynamics of sandpiles and complexity theory tell us something about monetary policy?
Blog: Hard, soft or aborted landing revisited
Back at the end of February I proposed an "aborted landing" as an alternative to a hard landing (a nice way of describing a crash) or a soft landing for the economy. At the time a "no landing" scenario was also preposed by many analysts. But
Newsletter: El Nino and Commodities
The El Nino Southern Oscillator appears to affect the demand for oil and the supply of grains.
Blog: The Fed's Dueling Mandates are a problem
The Fed's dual mandates of price stability and maximum employment are now dueling mandates.
Blog: Recognition for Dr. Harry Markowitz - the Founder of Quantitative Finance.
Harry Markowitz was not just the father of Modern Portfolio Theory.
Blog: Is the Fed truly "Anchoring" Inflation Expectations?
"Well anchored" inflation expectations to the 2% target are another Fed pipe dream particularly if viewed using the Fractal Market Hypothesis.
Blog: Yet another "new normal" for inflation and interest rates?
The stock and bond markets have spoken. We are now in a persistent environment of 4% to 5% inflation and corresponding interest rates. While the phrase “new normal” has roots back to World War I and has been used by people as disparate as market guru, Mohammed El-Erian and science
Flash Report: Market Uncertainty State Indicator moves to Transition
Blog: The VIX-One of these things is not like the others . . .
The VIX diverges from fundamental risks, for now.