Blog: El Nino and Commodities 2026
El Nino is a positive for consumers but a negative for markets on average. This time around geopolitical factors may dominate the climate.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has announced that we are now entering an El Nino phase in the global climate cycle. In fact this El Nino may be the strongest on record. With oil prices in flux, I thought it might be a good time to revisit the work I published in a Newsletter two years ago. In the newsletter I came up with a simple regime indicator based upon the El Nino Southern Oscillator (ENSO) and its impact on commodities. While the newsletter is only available to Supporters, a brief recap seemed appropriate.
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