Blog: Happy New Year, But Don't Get Cocky.
My non-predictions for 2026.
I don't pretend to have a crystal ball, or make predictions. My indicators are designed to tell us the current uncertainty state of the markets and the kind of risks associated with that state. But I've often said that I belong to the Murphy's Law School of Risk Management when it comes to using those states.
Last week I wrote about radical/true uncertainty. With the Market Uncertainty State Indicator (MUSI) in the neutral, Transition state, upside and downside risks are considered balanced. So I though that listing out the events that I think can go either way might be useful to those of you who are watching such things. Here are my big four. I'm sure you've seen them elsewhere, but I think I have a different perspective on them.