Blog: Skill vs. Luck in Markets

The Economist's cover last week was entitled "America's Gambling Frenzy." The lead article, "Gambling is growing like gangbusters in America," says it all. Around the same time the Wall Street Journal published "Young Men are making Risky Bets on Crypto and Politics." I can't help thinking that there's a link between the two which points towards an increasing speculative fever in the markets which is spilling over into the non-financial world, or maybe the other way around. Anyway, while it doesn't yet feel like 1999, it is looking a lot like 1998.