Blog: Skill vs. Luck in Markets

Last year The Economist had a cover story entitled "America's Gambling Frenzy." The lead article, "Gambling is growing like gangbusters in America," says it all. Around the same time the Wall Street Journal published "Young Men are making Risky Bets on Crypto and Politics." I can't help thinking that there's a link between the two which points towards an increasing speculative fever in the markets which is spilling over into the non-financial world, or maybe the other way around. Anyway, while last year looked like 1998, this year is starting to feel a lot like like 1999.