Blog: The "War on, War off" Market
The investing fog of war remains thick.
I always had problems with the old "risk on/risk off" view of market activity. But I think that's been replaced with a "war on/war off" attitude towards risk. That seems to be the primary driver of markets.
With that in mind, I thought we could go through a few indicators which suggest that even if peace does break out in a meaningful way, we still may have tough markets ahead. We are just starting to see the effects of the shut-down of the Strait of Hormose on energy, metal and fertilizer supplies. But the impact of the trade wars on the markets is only coming into focus now as well. Many are optimistic about the future, but I also heard that back in 2000 and 2008. So, what do we have so far?
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