Blog: Did the Market Groundhog see it's Shadow in the Jobs Numbers?
The bond market says yes. The stock market says no.
A year ago I equated Punxsutawney Phil's shadow with the monthly jobs numbers. That is, the market looks at the jobs numbers to decide whether we have more dreary Winter rate tightening or a Spring-like easing on the horizon. We saw on Friday that the analogy still holds. But unlike Phil's shadow, it's not clear whether the employment numbers were good news or bad news. The numbers showed that employment in the US is strong as is the economy, and getting stronger. Stocks went up. Bonds went down. So what's the bad news?
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