Blog: "Soft Landing Predictions" of cycles past

The soft landing bandwagon is getting pretty full. It'd be great if that happens but history is against such an event. And the primary risk is not that the Fed overtightens. The risk is for an exogenous event. A shock like Scrooge seeing Marley's ghost. One that is outside the economic system making them almost impossible to predict. Exogenous events include geopolitical events and ecological disasters. We've had such events in 1990, 2000, and 2008 to name a few. Unfortunately I still think we'll have an aborted landing before any other type.