Sign in Subscribe

Topic

Blog

A collection of 103 issues

Blog: Brief Market Uncertainty Update

Feeling under the weather, so I'm going to make this post brief. Despite the drop in raw implied volatilities and the rise in interest rates. The Market Uncertainty State Indicator (MUSI) remains at the Fragile reading. Aside from equity uncertainty:

Blog: Bitcoin Post Election Analysis

It's still not investing.

Blog: Elections and the Fractal Market Hypothesis

Long-term investment horizons will likely become short-term this week.

Blog: The Fed Model says the market's overvalued. So what?

An overvalued market isn't enough for a Fragile market.

Blog: The Market's Not Fragile Like a Flower, but Fragile Like a Bomb.

Risks are piling up while financial leverage increases.

China's Minsky Moment Risks are Increasing

Is this a Global Financial Crisis 2 in the making?

Blog: Will Inflation Come Back for One Last Scare?

The Aborted Landing Scenario rises from its economic grave.

Blog: El Nino and Commodities Revisited

With the devastating impact of Hurricane Helene on the Southeastern US, and the transition from El Nino back to La Nina taking place, I thought it might be a good time to revisit the work I published in a Newsletter last year. In the newsletter I came up with a

Blog: Fed Signals "All Clear," But for Markets?

Is a large Fed cut good news?

Blog: I See Market Risk Arising, But trouble's not on the way, yet.

Downside risks are building, but not yet critical.