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A collection of 109 issues

Blog: Is a Fed "pause" good news or bad news?

Once again we’re hearing that the end is near for Fed tightening. It’s hard to say whether that's a good thing or a bad thing. The optimists say: 1) Inflation has fallen significantly from its highs by most measures, 2) Credit conditions have tightened in the

Blog: Markets are Fragile, again – Credit and Debt Ceiling risks mount up

When markets are Fragile and leverage is high, a downside shock can cause calls for collateral as asset values decline leading to more selling. Minsky Moment risks are rising.

Blog: Is Equity Risk Declining? Or is it just wishful thinking?

The falling VIX may be a sign that “fear” is declining. But risk has multiple dimensions and its other facets don't agree.

Blog: The Road to Stagflation

Stagflation is a stop along the road from growth to recession. But it's still a nasty place, and it's now a strong possibility.

Blog: "Cyclical" Core PCE still not encouraging.

Blog: Is the Fed's 2% Target a Pipe Dream?

At his press conference last week, Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, said that he was confident the Fed would reach it's 2% inflation target "over time." We should not only be skeptical of this claim, but also of the relevance of the 2% target. Paul Volker, the

Blog: The Fed's Three Body Problem - Inflation vs. Employment vs. Financial Stability

In physics, the “three body problem” involves predicting the motion of three objects, or bodies, when the bodies are attracted to one another by gravity. Newton solved the two body problem, but not the three body equivalent. The French mathematician, Henri Poincare, studied this problem in the late 19th century,

Blog: The MOVE Index is not what it seems - Part 2

On Sept 1, 2022 I posted that the MOVE index is often misinterpreted. Last week's SVB failure makes this discussion relevant and worth continuing. The MOVE is an implied volatility index of US Treasuries. The index uses options on 2, 5, 10, and 30 year on-the-run US Treasuries.

Blog: Reflation comes back - For one last scare?

Blog: Hard, Soft or Aborted Landing?

Aeronautical terms have been popular form of market jargon for a long time. These days, of course, it’s what type of recession we’re going to have: a “hard” landing (which is a nice way of saying, a crash) or a “soft” landing, where we glide in without disturbing