Blog: The Method and Madness Model of irrational behavior
Rational and irrational behavior defined by comparing the types of uncertainty we face with the decision making methods we use.
Topic
Blog
A collection of 132 issues
Blog: Sandpile Monetary Policy and Inflation
Do the dynamics of sandpiles and complexity theory tell us something about monetary policy?
Blog: Hard, soft or aborted landing revisited
Back at the end of February I proposed an "aborted landing" as an alternative to a hard landing (a nice way of describing a crash) or a soft landing for the economy. At the time a "no landing" scenario was also preposed by many analysts. But
Blog: The Fed's Dueling Mandates are a problem
The Fed's dual mandates of price stability and maximum employment are now dueling mandates.
Blog: Recognition for Dr. Harry Markowitz - the Founder of Quantitative Finance.
Harry Markowitz was not just the father of Modern Portfolio Theory.
Blog: Is the Fed truly "Anchoring" Inflation Expectations?
"Well anchored" inflation expectations to the 2% target are another Fed pipe dream particularly if viewed using the Fractal Market Hypothesis.
Blog: Yet another "new normal" for inflation and interest rates?
The stock and bond markets have spoken. We are now in a persistent environment of 4% to 5% inflation and corresponding interest rates. While the phrase “new normal” has roots back to World War I and has been used by people as disparate as market guru, Mohammed El-Erian and science
Blog: The VIX-One of these things is not like the others . . .
The VIX diverges from fundamental risks, for now.
Blog: Complacency - What doesn't kill inflation gets ignored.
Entrenched inflation expectations are what the Fed's trying to kill. So far, no luck.
Blog: The VIX thinks the Fed genie will grant the market's wish.
Across the globe investors are hoping the Fed genie will keep everyone safe. But I, for one, am not betting on it.