Blog: High Macro, but Low Market Uncertainty?
Positive near term sentiment is offset by less positive long term fundamentals.
Topic
cycle analysis
A collection of 30 issues
Blog: Measuring Risk Sentiment
Risk changes, not the appetite for risk.
Blog: Inflation, "The Man Who Came to Dinner."
Inflation and high interest rates will not be going away.
Flash Report: Market Uncertainty shifts to Neutral
Blog: Brief Market Uncertainty Update
Feeling under the weather, so I'm going to make this post brief.
Despite the drop in raw implied volatilities and the rise in interest rates. The Market Uncertainty State Indicator (MUSI) remains at the Fragile reading. Aside from equity uncertainty:
Blog: Elections and the Fractal Market Hypothesis
Long-term investment horizons will likely become short-term this week.
Blog: The Fed Model says the market's overvalued. So what?
An overvalued market isn't enough for a Fragile market.
Blog: The Market's Not Fragile Like a Flower, but Fragile Like a Bomb.
Risks are piling up while financial leverage increases.
Blog: El Nino and Commodities Revisited
With the devastating impact of Hurricane Helene on the Southeastern US, and the transition from El Nino back to La Nina taking place, I thought it might be a good time to revisit the work I published in a Newsletter last year. In the newsletter I came up with a
Blog: I See Market Risk Arising, But trouble's not on the way, yet.
Downside risks are building, but not yet critical.