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cycle analysis

A collection of 26 issues

Blog: Brief Market Uncertainty Update

Feeling under the weather, so I'm going to make this post brief. Despite the drop in raw implied volatilities and the rise in interest rates. The Market Uncertainty State Indicator (MUSI) remains at the Fragile reading. Aside from equity uncertainty:

Blog: Elections and the Fractal Market Hypothesis

Long-term investment horizons will likely become short-term this week.

Blog: The Fed Model says the market's overvalued. So what?

An overvalued market isn't enough for a Fragile market.

Blog: The Market's Not Fragile Like a Flower, but Fragile Like a Bomb.

Risks are piling up while financial leverage increases.

Blog: El Nino and Commodities Revisited

With the devastating impact of Hurricane Helene on the Southeastern US, and the transition from El Nino back to La Nina taking place, I thought it might be a good time to revisit the work I published in a Newsletter last year. In the newsletter I came up with a

Blog: I See Market Risk Arising, But trouble's not on the way, yet.

Downside risks are building, but not yet critical.

Blog: Inflation is in the Eye of the Beholder

Don't forget "alternative" measures of inflation.

Blog: Did August Market Volatility Mean Anything?

Was it "full of sound and fury, signifying nothing" or "Something wicked this way comes?"

Blog: Where are we in the Market Cycle?

Things look pretty good.

Blog: Fuzzy Sets and the "Probability" of Fed Rate Cuts

Traders are unconsciously using fuzzy sets.