Blog: The Investing Fog of War
Unlike previous Gulf Wars, the fog is growing thicker for investors.
Topic
Economy
A collection of 130 issues
Blog: Beginning of the End, or End of the Beginning?
Stagflation seems likely. The question is whether it's strong or weak.
Blog: Complexity Trips Up Economists, Again.
When is a probability not a probability?
Blog: Are the Markets Underreacting to "the biggest energy shock in history?"
Markets are feeling optimistic, despite a wounded energy economy.
Blog: Unlike Political Regime Change, the Market Shifts Regimes by Itself
The market uncertainty state turns Fragile in the face of war.
Blog: Is This the End of the AI/Crypto/Gold Bubble?
Maybe, but Maybe not.
Blog: Monetary Policy - Ballistic vs. Gradualist Behavior
The Logic of Failure.
Blog: Will the Markets Lose Complexity?
Political constraints may make markets less adaptable and resilient.
Blog: Sandpile Monetary Policy, Complexity and Inflation
The complexity of sandpiles as it relates to monetary policy.
Blog: Happy New Year, But Don't Get Cocky.
My non-predictions for 2026.