Blog: The VIX thinks the Fed genie will grant the market's wish.
Across the globe investors are hoping the Fed genie will keep everyone safe. But I, for one, am not betting on it.
Topic
Economy
A collection of 94 issues
Blog: An El Nino level regime change for the markets?
In the Market Climatology section of the Hypertext Book, I use the El Nino Southern Oscillator (ENSO) as an example of a climate level regime change. It appears that ENSO is undergoing such a regime change, from La Nina, which just ended, to El Nino, which will probably start in
Newsletter: Murphy's Law Meets Hyman Minsky
As Gilda Radner said, "It's always something."
Blog: The Debt Limit-The end of trust and the “risk-free” rate?
Trust is what's at stake with the debt limit.
Blog: Is a Fed "pause" good news or bad news?
Once again we’re hearing that the end is near for Fed tightening. It’s hard to say whether that's a good thing or a bad thing.
The optimists say:
1) Inflation has fallen significantly from its highs by most measures,
2) Credit conditions have tightened in the
Blog: Is Equity Risk Declining? Or is it just wishful thinking?
The falling VIX may be a sign that “fear” is declining. But risk has multiple dimensions and its other facets don't agree.
Blog: The Road to Stagflation
Stagflation is a stop along the road from growth to recession. But it's still a nasty place, and it's now a strong possibility.
Newsletter: Liquidity and the MOVE Index - An Early Warning Signal of Financial Crisis
Liquidity has been in the media a lot lately. It’s one of those things we take for granted, until it’s dried up. In Fractal Market Analysis (1994) I made the point that markets don’t exist to give you a fair price (an assumption of the Efficient Market
Blog: The Fed's Three Body Problem - Inflation vs. Employment vs. Financial Stability
In physics, the “three body problem” involves predicting the motion of three objects, or bodies, when the bodies are attracted to one another by gravity. Newton solved the two body problem, but not the three body equivalent. The French mathematician, Henri Poincare, studied this problem in the late 19th century,
Newsletter: From Fragile to Turbulent - But "Minsky Moment" risks have passed
The shift in the Market Uncertainty State Indicator (MUSI) from Fragile to Turbulent requires commentary this month. First, what the change in market state means, and second, why it happened.
Fragile vs. Turbulent
A shock can break a Fragile market. A Turbulent market will bend chaotically, but not break.
Both