Topic
Economy
A collection of 76 issues
Blog: "The End is nigh" (of Fed tightening), but don't believe it.
Blog: A Fool's Hope
Blog: When a Recession is not a "Recession"
In my last post, I noted that the definition of a recession is not as precise as people think. The rule of thumb is two quarters of negative GDP growth. Yet, the decline in 2020 only lasted two months, March and April. So what gives?
The two quarter definition is
Blog: What's the yield curve telling us?
There is much discussion about the inverted yield curve and what it means. Many are saying that an inverted yield curve, where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, “always” precedes a recession. This bit of market lore, though, depends on a lot of basic definitions that are not often
Blog: Inflation checklist-Back to the future
I started in the investment business in May 1978, when I transferred to the investment department from the “data processing” department at the insurance company where I worked. Inflation had been rising for some time. I’d already seen the OPEC oil embargo of 1973, though I was a student