Blog: The Debt Limit-The end of trust and the “risk-free” rate?
Trust is what's at stake with the debt limit.
Topic
Financial Instability
A collection of 42 issues
Blog: Markets are Fragile, again – Credit and Debt Ceiling risks mount up
When markets are Fragile and leverage is high, a downside shock can cause calls for collateral as asset values decline leading to more selling. Minsky Moment risks are rising.
Newsletter: Liquidity and the MOVE Index - An Early Warning Signal of Financial Crisis
Liquidity has been in the media a lot lately. It’s one of those things we take for granted, until it’s dried up. In Fractal Market Analysis (1994) I made the point that markets don’t exist to give you a fair price (an assumption of the Efficient Market
Blog: The Fed's Three Body Problem - Inflation vs. Employment vs. Financial Stability
In physics, the “three body problem” involves predicting the motion of three objects, or bodies, when the bodies are attracted to one another by gravity. Newton solved the two body problem, but not the three body equivalent. The French mathematician, Henri Poincare, studied this problem in the late 19th century,
Blog: The MOVE Index is not what it seems - Part 2
On Sept 1, 2022 I posted that the MOVE index is often misinterpreted. Last week's SVB failure makes this discussion relevant and worth continuing.
The MOVE is an implied volatility index of US Treasuries. The index uses options on 2, 5, 10, and 30 year on-the-run US Treasuries.
Newsletter: From Fragile to Turbulent - But "Minsky Moment" risks have passed
The shift in the Market Uncertainty State Indicator (MUSI) from Fragile to Turbulent requires commentary this month. First, what the change in market state means, and second, why it happened.
Fragile vs. Turbulent
A shock can break a Fragile market. A Turbulent market will bend chaotically, but not break.
Both
Flash Report: Market Uncertainty State Moves from Fragile to Turbulent (Corrected)
Flash Report: Market Uncertainty State Moves from Fragile to Turbulent
Blog: Groundhog Day (not the movie!) for the market
Aspiring market pundit, Punxsutawney Phil, saw his shadow on Thursday, forecasting 6 more weeks of winter for the northeastern US, and a potential bear market. While there is no evidence that Phil, or any other groundhog has forecasting power, the media continue to follow the ritual as a matter of
Newsletter: These are times we need a Two-Handed Economist
" Give me a one-handed economist. All my economists say, 'On one hand . . .', and then 'But on the other...'" -Harry Truman