Blog: The VIX-One of these things is not like the others . . .
The VIX diverges from fundamental risks, for now.
Topic
Fractal Market Hypothesis
A collection of 44 issues
Newsletter: Fuzzy Sets and AI - Measuring Market Uncertainty
As complexity rises, precise statements lose meaning and meaningful statements lose precision. - The Law of Incompatibility, Lofti Zadeh
In this month’s newsletter, I’m discussing the use of fuzzy set principals embedded in the Market Climatology model. Fuzzy sets are a sub-set of artificial intelligence (AI) that mimics
Blog: This year's Debt Limit Crisis is different, to markets.
Will this debt limit crisis lead to a bout of "creative destruction" in the Austrian economics sense?
Blog: Is Equity Risk Declining? Or is it just wishful thinking?
The falling VIX may be a sign that “fear” is declining. But risk has multiple dimensions and its other facets don't agree.
Newsletter: Liquidity and the MOVE Index - An Early Warning Signal of Financial Crisis
Liquidity has been in the media a lot lately. It’s one of those things we take for granted, until it’s dried up. In Fractal Market Analysis (1994) I made the point that markets don’t exist to give you a fair price (an assumption of the Efficient Market
Blog: Reflation comes back - For one last scare?
Newsletter: From Fragile to Turbulent - But "Minsky Moment" risks have passed
The shift in the Market Uncertainty State Indicator (MUSI) from Fragile to Turbulent requires commentary this month. First, what the change in market state means, and second, why it happened.
Fragile vs. Turbulent
A shock can break a Fragile market. A Turbulent market will bend chaotically, but not break.
Both
Flash Report: Market Uncertainty State Moves from Fragile to Turbulent (Corrected)
Flash Report: Market Uncertainty State Moves from Fragile to Turbulent
Blog: Hard, Soft or Aborted Landing?
Aeronautical terms have been popular form of market jargon for a long time. These days, of course, it’s what type of recession we’re going to have: a “hard” landing (which is a nice way of saying, a crash) or a “soft” landing, where we glide in without disturbing