Blog: Complexity Trips Up Economists, Again.
When is a probability not a probability?
Topic
Fuzzy Sets
A collection of 11 issues
Blog: Monetary Policy - Ballistic vs. Gradualist Behavior
The Logic of Failure.
Blog: "Radical" Uncertainty Rises as Market Risk Drops
“For uncertain matters there are no calculable probabilities whatsoever. We simply do not know." -J.M Keynes
Blog: Risk down. Uncertainty high. What could go wrong?
Lower risk numbers do not mean uncertainty has followed.
Blog: Fed Signals "All Clear," But for Markets?
Is a large Fed cut good news?
Blog: Inflation is in the Eye of the Beholder
Don't forget "alternative" measures of inflation.
Blog: Fuzzy Sets and the "Probability" of Fed Rate Cuts
Traders are unconsciously using fuzzy sets.
Newsletter: Crossing the Threshold - Classifying the Market State
Turning time series into classifiers using ROC analysis.
Newsletter: Choosing Binary Classification Factors
Using the on-off switch for market risks.
Blog: The Method and Madness Model of irrational behavior
Rational and irrational behavior defined by comparing the types of uncertainty we face with the decision making methods we use.