Inflation

Blog: Stock and Bond Markets send Conflicting Signals

But for stocks it's likely a short-term reprieve.

Blog: Uncertainty + Tariffs = Stagflation?

Inflation or employment. Which path will the Fed take?

Blog: Complacency, Acquiescence and Low Uncertainty

Low risk may not mean low uncertainty.

Blog: Measuring the Impact of War on Market Uncertainty

Adapting to unique market events.

Blog: The Yield Curve Signals More Uncertainty

Bond yields and Macro expectations.

Blog: Dangers of Decision Making Under Complexity

Complacent rather than Ballistic Behavior reigns in the market.

Blog: The Fed's Dueling Mandates and Stagflation

Inflation or Employment? Which one wins?

Blog: Risk down. Uncertainty high. What could go wrong?

Lower risk numbers do not mean uncertainty has followed.

Blog: Why Are US Treasuries No Longer "Safe?"

Maybe bonds are acting like high inflation is already here.

Blog: Tariffs, Reciprocal In Name Only, Make Markets Fragile

Downside risk is larger than upside opportunities.