Blog: Complacency - What doesn't kill inflation gets ignored.
Entrenched inflation expectations are what the Fed's trying to kill. So far, no luck.
Topic
Inflation
A collection of 84 issues
Blog: The VIX thinks the Fed genie will grant the market's wish.
Across the globe investors are hoping the Fed genie will keep everyone safe. But I, for one, am not betting on it.
Blog: Is a Fed "pause" good news or bad news?
Once again we’re hearing that the end is near for Fed tightening. It’s hard to say whether that's a good thing or a bad thing.
The optimists say:
1) Inflation has fallen significantly from its highs by most measures,
2) Credit conditions have tightened in the
Blog: The Road to Stagflation
Stagflation is a stop along the road from growth to recession. But it's still a nasty place, and it's now a strong possibility.
Newsletter: Liquidity and the MOVE Index - An Early Warning Signal of Financial Crisis
Liquidity has been in the media a lot lately. It’s one of those things we take for granted, until it’s dried up. In Fractal Market Analysis (1994) I made the point that markets don’t exist to give you a fair price (an assumption of the Efficient Market
Blog: "Cyclical" Core PCE still not encouraging.
Blog: Is the Fed's 2% Target a Pipe Dream?
At his press conference last week, Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, said that he was confident the Fed would reach it's 2% inflation target "over time." We should not only be skeptical of this claim, but also of the relevance of the 2% target. Paul Volker, the
Blog: The Fed's Three Body Problem - Inflation vs. Employment vs. Financial Stability
In physics, the “three body problem” involves predicting the motion of three objects, or bodies, when the bodies are attracted to one another by gravity. Newton solved the two body problem, but not the three body equivalent. The French mathematician, Henri Poincare, studied this problem in the late 19th century,
Blog: Reflation comes back - For one last scare?
Newsletter: From Fragile to Turbulent - But "Minsky Moment" risks have passed
The shift in the Market Uncertainty State Indicator (MUSI) from Fragile to Turbulent requires commentary this month. First, what the change in market state means, and second, why it happened.
Fragile vs. Turbulent
A shock can break a Fragile market. A Turbulent market will bend chaotically, but not break.
Both