Blog: The Method and Madness Model of irrational behavior
Rational and irrational behavior defined by comparing the types of uncertainty we face with the decision making methods we use.
Topic
Inflation
A collection of 92 issues
Blog: Sandpile Monetary Policy and Inflation
Do the dynamics of sandpiles and complexity theory tell us something about monetary policy?
Blog: Hard, soft or aborted landing revisited
Back at the end of February I proposed an "aborted landing" as an alternative to a hard landing (a nice way of describing a crash) or a soft landing for the economy. At the time a "no landing" scenario was also preposed by many analysts. But
Newsletter: El Nino and Commodities
The El Nino Southern Oscillator appears to affect the demand for oil and the supply of grains.
Blog: The Fed's Dueling Mandates are a problem
The Fed's dual mandates of price stability and maximum employment are now dueling mandates.
Blog: Is the Fed truly "Anchoring" Inflation Expectations?
"Well anchored" inflation expectations to the 2% target are another Fed pipe dream particularly if viewed using the Fractal Market Hypothesis.
Blog: Yet another "new normal" for inflation and interest rates?
The stock and bond markets have spoken. We are now in a persistent environment of 4% to 5% inflation and corresponding interest rates. While the phrase “new normal” has roots back to World War I and has been used by people as disparate as market guru, Mohammed El-Erian and science
Newsletter: Fuzzy Sets and AI - Measuring Market Uncertainty
As complexity rises, precise statements lose meaning and meaningful statements lose precision. - The Law of Incompatibility, Lofti Zadeh
In this month’s newsletter, I’m discussing the use of fuzzy set principals embedded in the Market Climatology model. Fuzzy sets are a sub-set of artificial intelligence (AI) that mimics
Blog: Complacency - What doesn't kill inflation gets ignored.
Entrenched inflation expectations are what the Fed's trying to kill. So far, no luck.
Blog: The VIX thinks the Fed genie will grant the market's wish.
Across the globe investors are hoping the Fed genie will keep everyone safe. But I, for one, am not betting on it.