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Inflation

A collection of 83 issues

Blog: Bond Yields and Markets Before the "Before-Time"

A phrase from Star Trek: The Original Show became popular during the 2020 pandemic, referring to the time before COVID-19 as the “before-time.” The phrase was lifted from a 1966 episode entitled “Miri.” The story took place on a planet of children where the adults had been killed off during

Blog: Groundhog Day (not the movie!) for the market

Aspiring market pundit, Punxsutawney Phil, saw his shadow on Thursday, forecasting 6 more weeks of winter for the northeastern US, and a potential bear market. While there is no evidence that Phil, or any other groundhog has forecasting power, the media continue to follow the ritual as a matter of

Blog: Will the real inflation rate stand up?

One characteristic of our times is a surplus of data. When I started out, data was hard to come by, particularly timely data. This was true for money managers, economists, and central bankers. Now we may have too much data. So much it’s hard to see what's

Blog: What's Balanced Now, Anyhow? Rethinking the balanced portfolio

The “traditional” 60/40 (60% stocks, 40% bonds) portfolio has become controversial because of 2022’s performance, being among the worst on record. This has damaged the 60/40s reputation as the safe, neutral portfolio. But there are three things that have been left out of this debate:

Flash Report: Disinflation is confirmed

Flash Report: Inflation Level Regime drops to "Moderate"

Blog: The Powell Diet

Last November I went on a diet plan to lose 15 pounds. The first week I lost 4 pounds, and I was very happy. But after that it was slow going. I plateaued at around 6 pounds and stayed there a while. Those who’ve gone on diets know the

Blog: 2023 - What could go wrong?

Blog: Are Crypto Currencies Beanie Babies?

While I was a parent in the 90s, many of the people who work in markets these days were kids. Most of you will remember Beanie Babies, the little toys that became the modern equivalent of tulip bulbs in the early 1600s. In both cases they were items of limited