Newsletter: These are times we need a Two-Handed Economist
" Give me a one-handed economist. All my economists say, 'On one hand . . .', and then 'But on the other...'" -Harry Truman
Topic
Inflation
A collection of 88 issues
Blog: Is Stagflation Here?
Blog: Inflation trend is still up
While there was quite a to-do in the markets today because headline inflation didn't fall back as much as expected, worse news was that underlying "core" inflation was universally up continuing an unbroken trend. I'm not talking about the "ex-food and energy"
Blog: "Soft Landing" is off the table
A Bloomberg article today mentioned that Powell has dismissed the possibility of a "soft landing" and is now going for a "growth recession" which sounds like an oxymoron. But it seems to mean that they're hoping for a mild contraction which still does not
Blog: "Peak Inflation" not confirmed
When the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was released a couple of weeks ago, there was a sentiment of relief. Headline CPI and Core CPI measures had dropped a bit on year-over-year basis, leading many investors and market pundits to hope that we’re close to “peak inflation.” That is,
Blog: The two PMIs and the Fed
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a measure of manufacturing activity that has become widely followed in the last five years or so. I’ve used PMI data in research for some time, though. I’ve always liked the PMI, because it gives us a view of the economy from
Blog: Fed Policy-Is the "neutral rate" a myth?
The Fed and other central banks have now stated that they are raising rates to remove “accommodation.” Basically, they want to stop stimulating the economy and go to the much sought after neutral rate, which balances growth/employment and inflation. But what is this neutral rate? How will they know
Blog: Inflation checklist-Back to the future
I started in the investment business in May 1978, when I transferred to the investment department from the “data processing” department at the insurance company where I worked. Inflation had been rising for some time. I’d already seen the OPEC oil embargo of 1973, though I was a student