Topic
Market Uncertainty
A collection of 118 issues
Blog: Hard, Soft or Aborted Landing?
Aeronautical terms have been popular form of market jargon for a long time. These days, of course, it’s what type of recession we’re going to have: a “hard” landing (which is a nice way of saying, a crash) or a “soft” landing, where we glide in without disturbing
Blog: Is the VIX Broken? Nope.
Recently I’ve read some market commentators declare the VIX1 “broken" as a fear index because it’s not always down when the market is up and up when the market is down. I’ve heard this story several times over the years, but the only time the VIX
Blog: Groundhog Day (not the movie!) for the market
Aspiring market pundit, Punxsutawney Phil, saw his shadow on Thursday, forecasting 6 more weeks of winter for the northeastern US, and a potential bear market. While there is no evidence that Phil, or any other groundhog has forecasting power, the media continue to follow the ritual as a matter of
Newsletter: The Released Balloon Theory of Inflation
A released balloon can be deflating but still go up and down in an unpredictable way before collapsing. Inflation is like that too. It can ease in the near term while going up in the long term before it reaches its final level. So be careful extrapolating recent trends.
Blog: Is "risk appetite" growing, or are investors just feeling lucky?
Implied volatility measures have been falling pretty dramatically. As usual the press is saying “risk appetite” is growing. But what does that mean? It sounds like the media is saying investor's desire to take risk is higher today. Which must mean they're feeling luckier today than
Blog: Will the real inflation rate stand up?
One characteristic of our times is a surplus of data. When I started out, data was hard to come by, particularly timely data. This was true for money managers, economists, and central bankers. Now we may have too much data. So much it’s hard to see what's
Blog: 2023 - What could go wrong?
Blog: The Fractal Market Hypothesis remains in force as "everything moves in tandem"
Newsletter: These are times we need a Two-Handed Economist
" Give me a one-handed economist. All my economists say, 'On one hand . . .', and then 'But on the other...'" -Harry Truman