Blog: Can China Make the Phase Transition to Complexity? Will Chinese government allow their economy to develop an invisible hand?
Blog: Is the AI Bubble here? Looking at the Bubble Checklist Bubble talk is premature. But we're getting there.
Newsletter: Crossing the Threshold - Classifying the Market State Turning time series into classifiers using ROC analysis.
Blog: Why I'm no longer a "Quant." Hi. I'm Ed. I used to be a quant. A recent article in Bloomberg quoted David Einhorn, a prominent hedge fund manager, as saying that the markets were "fundamentally broken" because of "passive investors and quants." To quote Bloomberg, "Einhorn said that quants
Blog: Did the Market Groundhog see it's Shadow in the Jobs Numbers? The bond market says yes. The stock market says no.
Blog: The Goalie's Dilemma-Increasing Uncertainty to Reduce Risk When risk and uncertainty are not synonymous.
Blog: Are Markets Seeing Patterns in the Dark? Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, displayed cautious optimism last week as the FOMC left rates unchanged. In fact, the FOMC as a whole seemed in an upbeat mood with the famous "dot plot" indicating 75 basis points of easing next year. The markets turned Powell's cautious optimism
Newsletter: Financial Instability-A Question of Leverage How do we distinguish between good and bad leverage? Previously unpublished research.