Blog: Inflation glide path - Linear or Non-linear?
When it comes to inflation, investors are using "two dimensional thinking"
Topic
Market Uncertainty
A collection of 96 issues
Blog: Is the Yield Curve un-inverting or steepening? What would George Carlin say?
Whichever you prefer, its not good news.
Blog: Glass half-empty/full paradox comes to the markets
It's not how the market glass looks, but how it got there that matters.
Blog: The Murphy's Law Approach to risk management
The expert knows more and more about less and less until he knows everything about nothing. -Mahatma Gandhi
Newsletter: The Fractal Market Hypothesis, the Infinite Variance Syndrome and the Nature of Risk
Markowitz and Mandelbrot were both right. Previously unpublished research.
Blog: When good news is bad news
When good news is bad news, the market is priced for perfection. Market conditions have turned Fragile.
Blog: Implied Vols may be losing their power
In the Market Uncertainty State Indicator (MUSI), I use implied volatility indices to measure equity risk, and an additional one for liquidity risk. They are the S&P VIX, the EuroStoxx VSTOXX, and the Oil OVX. For liquidity I combine these with the MOVE index, a measure of US
Blog: Is the Fed "Waiting for Godot?"
"Nothing happens, nobody comes, nobody goes. Its awful!" -Estragon
Blog: China's Minsky Moment?
Would a Minsky Moment in China spread to the rest of the world making Global Financial Crisis 2, or would it remain local?
Blog: "Soft Landing Predictions" of cycles past
The soft landing bandwagon is getting full, but history is against it.