Blog: When good news is bad news
When good news is bad news, the market is priced for perfection. Market conditions have turned Fragile.
Topic
Market Uncertainty
A collection of 121 issues
Blog: Implied Vols may be losing their power
In the Market Uncertainty State Indicator (MUSI), I use implied volatility indices to measure equity risk, and an additional one for liquidity risk. They are the S&P VIX, the EuroStoxx VSTOXX, and the Oil OVX. For liquidity I combine these with the MOVE index, a measure of US
Blog: Is the Fed "Waiting for Godot?"
"Nothing happens, nobody comes, nobody goes. Its awful!" -Estragon
Blog: China's Minsky Moment?
Would a Minsky Moment in China spread to the rest of the world making Global Financial Crisis 2, or would it remain local?
Blog: "Soft Landing Predictions" of cycles past
The soft landing bandwagon is getting full, but history is against it.
Blog: Central Banks and "The Logic of Failure."
Studies of complex decision making may help us understand future monetary policy.
Blog: The Method and Madness Model of irrational behavior
Rational and irrational behavior defined by comparing the types of uncertainty we face with the decision making methods we use.
Blog: Hard, soft or aborted landing revisited
Back at the end of February I proposed an "aborted landing" as an alternative to a hard landing (a nice way of describing a crash) or a soft landing for the economy. At the time a "no landing" scenario was also preposed by many analysts. But
Newsletter: El Nino and Commodities
The El Nino Southern Oscillator appears to affect the demand for oil and the supply of grains.
Blog: The Fed's Dueling Mandates are a problem
The Fed's dual mandates of price stability and maximum employment are now dueling mandates.