Newsletter: Choosing Binary Classification Factors
Using the on-off switch for market risks.
Topic
Markets
A collection of 100 issues
Blog: Monetary Inflation May be Waking Up
As supply side inflation falls, monetary inflation may be rising.
Blog: The Fractal Market Hypothesis and Optimism
Is the news good enough to follow the crowd?
Blog: Some Good News on the Inflation Front
I often feel like I'm Doctor Doom these days. So I'm happy to report some good news. You probably noticed that while most analysts have credited the Fed rate hikes with bringing down inflation, I haven't been convinced that's the case. The
Blog: Is the Yield Curve un-inverting or steepening? What would George Carlin say?
Whichever you prefer, its not good news.
Blog: The Murphy's Law Approach to risk management
The expert knows more and more about less and less until he knows everything about nothing. -Mahatma Gandhi
Newsletter: The Fractal Market Hypothesis, the Infinite Variance Syndrome and the Nature of Risk
Markowitz and Mandelbrot were both right. Previously unpublished research.
Blog: Implied Vols may be losing their power
In the Market Uncertainty State Indicator (MUSI), I use implied volatility indices to measure equity risk, and an additional one for liquidity risk. They are the S&P VIX, the EuroStoxx VSTOXX, and the Oil OVX. For liquidity I combine these with the MOVE index, a measure of US
Blog: China's Minsky Moment?
Would a Minsky Moment in China spread to the rest of the world making Global Financial Crisis 2, or would it remain local?
Newsletter: Is the bond market going wayback?
A recent article in the Wall Street Journal suggested that it might be a good time to discuss the Inflation Level Regime Indicator (ILRI) and what it means for bond yields. In that article the author says that the "rule of thumb was that 10-year Treasury yields should be