Blog: Complacency - What doesn't kill inflation gets ignored.
Entrenched inflation expectations are what the Fed's trying to kill. So far, no luck.
Topic
Markets
A collection of 84 issues
Announcement: Model Asset Allocation Portfolios now available
Blog: The VIX thinks the Fed genie will grant the market's wish.
Across the globe investors are hoping the Fed genie will keep everyone safe. But I, for one, am not betting on it.
Blog: This year's Debt Limit Crisis is different, to markets.
Will this debt limit crisis lead to a bout of "creative destruction" in the Austrian economics sense?
Newsletter: Murphy's Law Meets Hyman Minsky
As Gilda Radner said, "It's always something."
Blog: Is a Fed "pause" good news or bad news?
Once again we’re hearing that the end is near for Fed tightening. It’s hard to say whether that's a good thing or a bad thing.
The optimists say:
1) Inflation has fallen significantly from its highs by most measures,
2) Credit conditions have tightened in the
Blog: Markets are Fragile, again – Credit and Debt Ceiling risks mount up
When markets are Fragile and leverage is high, a downside shock can cause calls for collateral as asset values decline leading to more selling. Minsky Moment risks are rising.
Blog: Is Equity Risk Declining? Or is it just wishful thinking?
The falling VIX may be a sign that “fear” is declining. But risk has multiple dimensions and its other facets don't agree.
Blog: The Road to Stagflation
Stagflation is a stop along the road from growth to recession. But it's still a nasty place, and it's now a strong possibility.
Newsletter: Liquidity and the MOVE Index - An Early Warning Signal of Financial Crisis
Liquidity has been in the media a lot lately. It’s one of those things we take for granted, until it’s dried up. In Fractal Market Analysis (1994) I made the point that markets don’t exist to give you a fair price (an assumption of the Efficient Market