Blog: China's Minsky Moment? Would a Minsky Moment in China spread to the rest of the world making Global Financial Crisis 2, or would it remain local?
Newsletter: Is the bond market going wayback? A recent article in the Wall Street Journal suggested that it might be a good time to discuss the Inflation Level Regime Indicator (ILRI) and what it means for bond yields. In that article the author says that the "rule of thumb was that 10-year Treasury yields should be
Newsletter: El Nino and Commodities The El Nino Southern Oscillator appears to affect the demand for oil and the supply of grains.
Blog: Recognition for Dr. Harry Markowitz - the Founder of Quantitative Finance. Harry Markowitz was not just the father of Modern Portfolio Theory.
Blog: Is the Fed truly "Anchoring" Inflation Expectations? "Well anchored" inflation expectations to the 2% target are another Fed pipe dream particularly if viewed using the Fractal Market Hypothesis.
Blog: Yet another "new normal" for inflation and interest rates? The stock and bond markets have spoken. We are now in a persistent environment of 4% to 5% inflation and corresponding interest rates. While the phrase “new normal” has roots back to World War I and has been used by people as disparate as market guru, Mohammed El-Erian and science
Blog: The VIX-One of these things is not like the others . . . The VIX diverges from fundamental risks, for now.
Blog: Complacency - What doesn't kill inflation gets ignored. Entrenched inflation expectations are what the Fed's trying to kill. So far, no luck.