Topic
Markets
A collection of 91 issues
Flash Report: Market Uncertainty State Moves from Fragile to Turbulent
Blog: Hard, Soft or Aborted Landing?
Aeronautical terms have been popular form of market jargon for a long time. These days, of course, it’s what type of recession we’re going to have: a “hard” landing (which is a nice way of saying, a crash) or a “soft” landing, where we glide in without disturbing
Blog: Bond Yields and Markets Before the "Before-Time"
A phrase from Star Trek: The Original Show became popular during the 2020 pandemic, referring to the time before COVID-19 as the “before-time.” The phrase was lifted from a 1966 episode entitled “Miri.” The story took place on a planet of children where the adults had been killed off during
Blog: Is "risk appetite" growing, or are investors just feeling lucky?
Implied volatility measures have been falling pretty dramatically. As usual the press is saying “risk appetite” is growing. But what does that mean? It sounds like the media is saying investor's desire to take risk is higher today. Which must mean they're feeling luckier today than
Blog: Will the real inflation rate stand up?
One characteristic of our times is a surplus of data. When I started out, data was hard to come by, particularly timely data. This was true for money managers, economists, and central bankers. Now we may have too much data. So much it’s hard to see what's
Blog: What's Balanced Now, Anyhow? Rethinking the balanced portfolio
The “traditional” 60/40 (60% stocks, 40% bonds) portfolio has become controversial because of 2022’s performance, being among the worst on record. This has damaged the 60/40s reputation as the safe, neutral portfolio. But there are three things that have been left out of this debate:
Flash Report: Disinflation is confirmed
Blog: The Powell Diet
Last November I went on a diet plan to lose 15 pounds. The first week I lost 4 pounds, and I was very happy. But after that it was slow going. I plateaued at around 6 pounds and stayed there a while. Those who’ve gone on diets know the
Blog: Are Crypto Currencies Beanie Babies?
While I was a parent in the 90s, many of the people who work in markets these days were kids. Most of you will remember Beanie Babies, the little toys that became the modern equivalent of tulip bulbs in the early 1600s. In both cases they were items of limited