Topic
Markets
A collection of 91 issues
Blog: "The End is nigh" (of Fed tightening), but don't believe it.
Blog: The Fractal Market Hypothesis remains in force as "everything moves in tandem"
Blog: A Fool's Hope
Blog: The Fractal Market Hypothesis in Action
Bloomberg recently featured an article titled “Lockstep Stock Market is Forcing Everyone to be a Macro Trader.”1 The article noted that the correlation across stocks has increased substantially. Markets seem to be less concerned about individual stock stories than about the overall economy and its effect on all stocks.
Blog: Fed Policy-Is the "neutral rate" a myth?
The Fed and other central banks have now stated that they are raising rates to remove “accommodation.” Basically, they want to stop stimulating the economy and go to the much sought after neutral rate, which balances growth/employment and inflation. But what is this neutral rate? How will they know
Blog: Bitcoin are Pork Bellies, Not Gold
Bitcoin proponents often refer to cryptocurrencies as “digital gold.” But aside from both having few practical uses, bitcoin and gold have little in common. Yet despite its lack of utility, bitcoin continues to trade. Along with other cryptocurrencies, bitcoin seems to have taken on a life of its own as
Blog: When a Recession is not a "Recession"
In my last post, I noted that the definition of a recession is not as precise as people think. The rule of thumb is two quarters of negative GDP growth. Yet, the decline in 2020 only lasted two months, March and April. So what gives?
The two quarter definition is
Blog: What's the yield curve telling us?
There is much discussion about the inverted yield curve and what it means. Many are saying that an inverted yield curve, where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, “always” precedes a recession. This bit of market lore, though, depends on a lot of basic definitions that are not often
Blog: Inflation checklist-Back to the future
I started in the investment business in May 1978, when I transferred to the investment department from the “data processing” department at the insurance company where I worked. Inflation had been rising for some time. I’d already seen the OPEC oil embargo of 1973, though I was a student