Blog: Beginning of the End, or End of the Beginning? Stagflation seems likely. The question is whether it's strong or weak.
Blog: Are the Markets Underreacting to "the biggest energy shock in history?" Markets are feeling optimistic, despite a wounded energy economy.
Blog: Unlike Political Regime Change, the Market Shifts Regimes by Itself The market uncertainty state turns Fragile in the face of war.
Blog: Financial Stability-The Third of Two Fed Mandates? Financial stability overrides inflation and employment.
Blog: China's Minsky Moment? Would a Minsky Moment in China spread to the rest of the world making Global Financial Crisis 2, or would it remain local?
Newsletter: From Fragile to Turbulent - But "Minsky Moment" risks have passed The shift in the Market Uncertainty State Indicator (MUSI) from Fragile to Turbulent requires commentary this month. First, what the change in market state means, and second, why it happened. Fragile vs. Turbulent A shock can break a Fragile market. A Turbulent market will bend chaotically, but not break. Both