Blog: Central Banks and "The Logic of Failure." Studies of complex decision making may help us understand future monetary policy.
Blog: Sandpile Monetary Policy and Inflation Do the dynamics of sandpiles and complexity theory tell us something about monetary policy?
Blog: Hard, soft or aborted landing revisited Back at the end of February I proposed an "aborted landing" as an alternative to a hard landing (a nice way of describing a crash) or a soft landing for the economy. At the time a "no landing" scenario was also preposed by many analysts. But
Blog: Recognition for Dr. Harry Markowitz - the Founder of Quantitative Finance. Harry Markowitz was not just the father of Modern Portfolio Theory.
Blog: Is the Fed truly "Anchoring" Inflation Expectations? "Well anchored" inflation expectations to the 2% target are another Fed pipe dream particularly if viewed using the Fractal Market Hypothesis.
Blog: Is a Fed "pause" good news or bad news? Once again we’re hearing that the end is near for Fed tightening. It’s hard to say whether that's a good thing or a bad thing. The optimists say: 1) Inflation has fallen significantly from its highs by most measures, 2) Credit conditions have tightened in the
Blog: The Road to Stagflation Stagflation is a stop along the road from growth to recession. But it's still a nasty place, and it's now a strong possibility.
Newsletter: Liquidity and the MOVE Index - An Early Warning Signal of Financial Crisis Liquidity has been in the media a lot lately. It’s one of those things we take for granted, until it’s dried up. In Fractal Market Analysis (1994) I made the point that markets don’t exist to give you a fair price (an assumption of the Efficient Market
Blog: Is the Fed's 2% Target a Pipe Dream? At his press conference last week, Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, said that he was confident the Fed would reach it's 2% inflation target "over time." We should not only be skeptical of this claim, but also of the relevance of the 2% target. Paul Volker, the