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Reflation

A collection of 51 issues

Blog: Is a Fed "pause" good news or bad news?

Once again we’re hearing that the end is near for Fed tightening. It’s hard to say whether that's a good thing or a bad thing. The optimists say: 1) Inflation has fallen significantly from its highs by most measures, 2) Credit conditions have tightened in the

Blog: The Road to Stagflation

Stagflation is a stop along the road from growth to recession. But it's still a nasty place, and it's now a strong possibility.

Blog: Is the Fed's 2% Target a Pipe Dream?

At his press conference last week, Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, said that he was confident the Fed would reach it's 2% inflation target "over time." We should not only be skeptical of this claim, but also of the relevance of the 2% target. Paul Volker, the

Blog: Reflation comes back - For one last scare?

Blog: Bond Yields and Markets Before the "Before-Time"

A phrase from Star Trek: The Original Show became popular during the 2020 pandemic, referring to the time before COVID-19 as the “before-time.” The phrase was lifted from a 1966 episode entitled “Miri.” The story took place on a planet of children where the adults had been killed off during

Blog: Will the real inflation rate stand up?

One characteristic of our times is a surplus of data. When I started out, data was hard to come by, particularly timely data. This was true for money managers, economists, and central bankers. Now we may have too much data. So much it’s hard to see what's

Blog: What's Balanced Now, Anyhow? Rethinking the balanced portfolio

The “traditional” 60/40 (60% stocks, 40% bonds) portfolio has become controversial because of 2022’s performance, being among the worst on record. This has damaged the 60/40s reputation as the safe, neutral portfolio. But there are three things that have been left out of this debate:

Flash Report: Disinflation is confirmed