Topic
Reflation
A collection of 47 issues
Blog: Bond Yields and Markets Before the "Before-Time"
A phrase from Star Trek: The Original Show became popular during the 2020 pandemic, referring to the time before COVID-19 as the “before-time.” The phrase was lifted from a 1966 episode entitled “Miri.” The story took place on a planet of children where the adults had been killed off during
Newsletter: The Released Balloon Theory of Inflation
A released balloon can be deflating but still go up and down in an unpredictable way before collapsing. Inflation is like that too. It can ease in the near term while going up in the long term before it reaches its final level. So be careful extrapolating recent trends.
Blog: Will the real inflation rate stand up?
One characteristic of our times is a surplus of data. When I started out, data was hard to come by, particularly timely data. This was true for money managers, economists, and central bankers. Now we may have too much data. So much it’s hard to see what's
Blog: What's Balanced Now, Anyhow? Rethinking the balanced portfolio
The “traditional” 60/40 (60% stocks, 40% bonds) portfolio has become controversial because of 2022’s performance, being among the worst on record. This has damaged the 60/40s reputation as the safe, neutral portfolio. But there are three things that have been left out of this debate:
Flash Report: Disinflation is confirmed
Flash Report: Inflation Level Regime drops to "Moderate"
Blog: The Powell Diet
Last November I went on a diet plan to lose 15 pounds. The first week I lost 4 pounds, and I was very happy. But after that it was slow going. I plateaued at around 6 pounds and stayed there a while. Those who’ve gone on diets know the