Blog: Happy New Year, But Don't Get Cocky.
My non-predictions for 2026.
Topic
Tariffs
A collection of 29 issues
Blog: "Radical" Uncertainty Rises as Market Risk Drops
“For uncertain matters there are no calculable probabilities whatsoever. We simply do not know." -J.M Keynes
Blog: What Could Prick the AI Bubble?
The return of the "burn rate" is an ominous sign.
Blog: Tipping Point or False Alarm?
Are the markets weary, or is this just another false alarm?
Blog: The Government Shutdown and Market Models
For FMCR there isn't a problem. But that may not be true for everybody.
Blog: Welcome to the "Pavlov's Dog" Market
Markets are conditioned to buy the rate cut, but is that a good idea?
Blog: Stock and Bond Markets send Conflicting Signals
But for stocks it's likely a short-term reprieve.
Blog: The Action/Reaction Myth and Markets
The waiting is the hardest part. -Tom Petty
Blog: Uncertainty + Tariffs = Stagflation?
Inflation or employment. Which path will the Fed take?
Blog: AI Bubble - Are we there yet?
Bubble conditions are here. But risk sentiment is positive.