Blog: Will the Fed pull off a 1994 in 2024?
Soft landing is becoming a possibility much to my surprise.
Barring an unexpected geopolitical event, it looks like the soft landing may actually happen. Though I was skeptical, I welcome this (still somewhat possible) outcome. If a soft landing does happen it might be useful to review the last time the Fed managed to engineer one, 1994. That was 30 years ago. I discussed the derailed 1990 soft landing before so it's only fitting that we talk about a more positive, though rare, outcome.
And 1994 may be even more relevant than we think. The soft landing of the mid-1990s likely set the monetary conditions for the tech bubble and its subsequent collapse. Given the positive, early stage AI sentiment, we may be seeing similar conditions developing.