Blog: This year's Debt Limit Crisis is different, to markets.
Will this debt limit crisis lead to a bout of "creative destruction" in the Austrian economics sense?
More issues
Blog: An El Nino level regime change for the markets?
In the Market Climatology section of the Hypertext Book, I use the El Nino Southern Oscillator (ENSO) as an example of a climate level regime change. It appears that ENSO is undergoing such a regime change, from La Nina, which just ended, to El Nino, which will probably start in
Newsletter: Murphy's Law Meets Hyman Minsky
As Gilda Radner said, "It's always something."
Blog: The Debt Limit-The end of trust and the “risk-free” rate?
Trust is what's at stake with the debt limit.
Blog: Is a Fed "pause" good news or bad news?
Once again we’re hearing that the end is near for Fed tightening. It’s hard to say whether that's a good thing or a bad thing.
The optimists say:
1) Inflation has fallen significantly from its highs by most measures,
2) Credit conditions have tightened in the
Blog: Markets are Fragile, again – Credit and Debt Ceiling risks mount up
When markets are Fragile and leverage is high, a downside shock can cause calls for collateral as asset values decline leading to more selling. Minsky Moment risks are rising.
Blog: Is Equity Risk Declining? Or is it just wishful thinking?
The falling VIX may be a sign that “fear” is declining. But risk has multiple dimensions and its other facets don't agree.
Blog: The Road to Stagflation
Stagflation is a stop along the road from growth to recession. But it's still a nasty place, and it's now a strong possibility.
Newsletter: Liquidity and the MOVE Index - An Early Warning Signal of Financial Crisis
Liquidity has been in the media a lot lately. It’s one of those things we take for granted, until it’s dried up. In Fractal Market Analysis (1994) I made the point that markets don’t exist to give you a fair price (an assumption of the Efficient Market