Newsletter: Financial Instability-A Question of Leverage

How do we distinguish between good and bad leverage? Previously unpublished research.

Blog: Return Factor Illusions

"Factor zoos" are doubly so.

Blog: Is a low VIX "the dog that didn't bark?"

Is absence of evidence a clue?

Blog: Is Market Optimism a fool's hope?

"There was never much hope. Just a fool's hope . . ." -Gandalf

Flash Report: MUSI shifts to Transition

The market has spoken.

Newsletter: Choosing Binary Classification Factors

Using the on-off switch for market risks.

Blog: Monetary Inflation May be Waking Up

As supply side inflation falls, monetary inflation may be rising.

Blog: The Fractal Market Hypothesis and Optimism

Is the news good enough to follow the crowd?

Blog: Some Good News on the Inflation Front

I often feel like I'm Doctor Doom these days. So I'm happy to report some good news. You probably noticed that while most analysts have credited the Fed rate hikes with bringing down inflation, I haven't been convinced that's the case. The

Blog: Macro Changes This Way Come

Indicators are turning, signaling difficult times ahead.